Nvidia Earnings: AI Boom, $500B Forecast, and China Challenge
Nvidia delivered third-quarter results on Wednesday that topped analyst estimates for both revenue and profit, while issuing an optimistic outlook for the coming quarter. This has propelled Nvidia shares higher, alongside gains in other AI-related stocks.
The company, a leader in artificial intelligence (AI) chip production, continues to show dominance in the fast-growing GPU market. CEO Jensen Huang expressed strong confidence in Nvidia’s future during a call with analysts, emphasizing robust product demand and growth opportunities.
Key Takeaways
- Earnings beat on revenue and profit, paired with upbeat guidance.
- CEO Jensen Huang rejects “AI bubble” concerns, citing real, expanding use cases.
- Company reaffirms $500B AI chip orders projected across 2025–2026.
- China sales remain limited ($50M H20 in the quarter), yet overall momentum is strong.
Dismissing AI Bubble Concerns
CEO Jensen Huang addressed investor worries about a potential AI investment bubble, arguing that growth is grounded in real demand. He outlined three drivers fueling AI infrastructure investment:
- Greater use of GPUs for non-AI workloads such as data processing.
- The rise of new AI-powered applications across industries.
- Emergence of autonomous AI systems that require even more compute.
Huang believes the broader market underestimates the scale and necessity of these advancements, pushing back against the “bubble” narrative.
Analyst Sentiment
Market analysts, including Bernstein, suggested Huang’s reassurances helped calm fears after recent volatility in AI-related stocks, noting his leadership restored confidence.
Ambitious Half-Trillion Dollar Forecast
Last month, Huang predicted Nvidia would receive $500 billion in AI chip orders across 2025 and 2026. The company reaffirmed this projection, with CFO Colette Kress confirming Nvidia remains on track.
Kress highlighted recent major deals—including partnerships with firms like Anthropic and an expanded agreement with Saudi Arabia—that were not yet included in the current order backlog, suggesting the figure could rise as additional agreements are finalized.
By the Numbers
- Projected orders: $500B (2025–2026)
- Recent partnerships: Anthropic; expanded Saudi Arabia agreement
What Analysts Say
Post-earnings commentary, including from Jefferies, viewed the forecast as a show of strength likely to stabilize AI sentiment into year-end.
Limited China Sales Impact
Nvidia faces hurdles in China due to export regulations and competition. Although licenses were obtained to sell the H20 chip—an adjusted, less advanced version of its 2022 technology—actual sales were modest. Only $50 million in H20 sales were recorded for the quarter, with Kress describing China orders as “insignificant.”
Political factors and tougher market conditions contributed to the lack of major sales. Despite this, Nvidia remains in discussions with U.S. and Chinese authorities to gain permission to sell current-generation chips in China. For now, the outlook does not rely on China demand.
Context
Analysts at Melius noted Nvidia’s strong earnings are even more notable given limited China business, projecting robust free cash flow moving forward.
Conclusion
Nvidia’s latest results underscore sustained demand for AI technology, counter the notion of an AI bubble, and spotlight ambitious growth plans despite geopolitical headwinds. Investors and analysts responded positively, reaffirming Nvidia’s status as a central player in the ongoing AI boom.
